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HyPS vs JäPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HyPS
HyPS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
JäPS
JäPS
5/3/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundVilla Park tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HyPS26%
×Draw18%
JäPS56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HyPS
1.88
JäPS
2.78

JäPS creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

HyPS
2.67
JäPS
3.23

allows per match

HyPS
2.33
JäPS
1.08

finishing

HyPS+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HyPS ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

HyPS or draw
44%
HyPS or JäPS
82%
Draw or JäPS
74%

Winning margin

HyPS wins by 2+
13%
JäPS wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

HyPS 1+ goals
85%
HyPS 2+ goals
56%
HyPS 3+ goals
29%
JäPS 1+ goals
94%
JäPS 2+ goals
76%
JäPS 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

HyPS (draw refunded)
31%
JäPS (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HyPS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

JäPS away — creates 3.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HyPS attack 2.67 + JäPS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

JäPS attack 3.23 + HyPS defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HyPS scores more
26%
level
18%
JäPS scores more
56%

JäPS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HyPS 1–2 JäPS

JäPS beat HyPS 2-1 in Suomen Cup on May 3, 2022.

The match was played at Villa Park tekonurmi in Hyvinkää.