Hyderabad 2–2 NorthEast United: Result & Stats

Hyderabad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

NorthEast United

João Victor 76'

M. Chothe 70'

A. Saji 51' (OG)

Parthib Gogoi 32'

3/4/2024

Indian Super League · Round 18GMC Balayogi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hyderabad41%

×Draw25%

NorthEast United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HyderabadExpected goals in this matchNorthEast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.37

Hyderabad

1.53

NorthEast United

1.37

Hyderabad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 68 away

1.30

creates per match

1.22

1.52

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hyderabad

1.30

NorthEast United

1.22

allows per match

Hyderabad

1.52

NorthEast United

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hyderabad+0.00on par

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyderabad ↓

NorthEast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hyderabad or draw

66%

Hyderabad or NorthEast United

75%

Draw or NorthEast United

59%

Winning margin

Hyderabad wins by 2+

20%

NorthEast United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hyderabad 1+ goals

78%

Hyderabad 2+ goals

45%

Hyderabad 3+ goals

20%

NorthEast United 1+ goals

75%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

40%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hyderabad (draw refunded)

55%

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyderabad at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

NorthEast United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyderabad attack 1.30 + NorthEast United defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.53

NorthEast United attack 1.22 + Hyderabad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hyderabad scores more

41%

level

25%

NorthEast United scores more

34%

Hyderabad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hyderabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

João Victor

Hyderabad · M

8.0

Match Events

32'

Parthib Gogoi

51'

A. SajiOwn goal

62'

Abijith PA← L. Sailo

66'

M. Nickson← Parthib Gogoi

70'

74'

74'

74'

76'

85'

P. Singh← R. Philippoteaux

90+7'

A. Vanlalrinchhana← Ramhlunchhunga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HyderabadNorthEast

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots13

5Corners8

7Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target4

7Off Target4

4Blocked5

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

442Total Passes363

352Accurate Passes253

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2