Hyderabad 1–1 Bengaluru: Result & Stats

Hyderabad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bengaluru

D. Murgaokar 21'

S. Chhetri 78'

1/18/2025

Indian Super League · Round 17G.M.C. Balayogi Athletic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hyderabad36%

×Draw26%

Bengaluru39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HyderabadExpected goals in this matchBengaluru

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Hyderabad

1.33

Bengaluru

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 72 away

1.30

creates per match

1.28

1.52

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Hyderabad

1.30

Bengaluru

1.28

allows per match

Hyderabad

1.52

Bengaluru

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hyderabad+0.00on par

Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyderabad ↓

Bengaluru →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hyderabad or draw

61%

Hyderabad or Bengaluru

74%

Draw or Bengaluru

64%

Winning margin

Hyderabad wins by 2+

16%

Bengaluru wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hyderabad 1+ goals

74%

Hyderabad 2+ goals

38%

Hyderabad 3+ goals

15%

Bengaluru 1+ goals

75%

Bengaluru 2+ goals

41%

Bengaluru 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hyderabad (draw refunded)

48%

Bengaluru (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyderabad at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyderabad attack 1.30 + Bengaluru defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bengaluru attack 1.28 + Hyderabad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hyderabad scores more

36%

level

26%

Bengaluru scores more

39%

Bengaluru at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

D. Murgaokar

Hyderabad · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

D. Murgaokar↳ Ramhlunchhunga

46'

R. Williams← A. Jovanović

46'

Édgar Méndez← Pedro Capó

46'

L. Fanai← Shivaldo Singh

46'

C. Konsham← H. Patre

61'

Sourav K← D. Murgaokar

63'

Manoj Mohammed

68'

Rahul Bheke

78'

M. Salah← N. Poojary

78'

S. Chhetri↳ R. Williams

84'

Joseph Sunny

87'

A. Adhikari← I. Vanmalsawma

90+2'

P. Shrivas← J. Sunny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HyderabadBengaluru

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots6

6Corners6

4Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target1

7Off Target5

1Blocked0

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

299Total Passes492

218Accurate Passes407

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides6