Hyde United 1–3 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Hyde United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Macclesfield

F. Yonsian 27'

K. Drummond 67'

P. Dawson 47'

D. Lafferty 12'

4/1/2024

League #59 · Northern - 38Ewen Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hyde United34%

×Draw20%

Macclesfield46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hyde UnitedExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.30

Hyde United

1.95

Macclesfield

2.30

Macclesfield creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.60

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Hyde United

2.50

Macclesfield

2.60

allows per match

Hyde United

2.00

Macclesfield

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hyde United+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyde United ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hyde United or draw

54%

Hyde United or Macclesfield

80%

Draw or Macclesfield

66%

Winning margin

Hyde United wins by 2+

18%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hyde United 1+ goals

86%

Hyde United 2+ goals

58%

Hyde United 3+ goals

31%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

90%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

67%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Hyde United (draw refunded)

42%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyde United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyde United attack 2.50 + Macclesfield defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Macclesfield attack 2.60 + Hyde United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hyde United scores more

34%

level

20%

Macclesfield scores more

46%

Macclesfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Lafferty

27'

F. Yonsian

47'

P. Dawson

61'

H. Ditchfield

67'

K. Drummond

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff