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Hyde United vs Hednesford Town — League #59 2026

Hyde United
Hyde United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
D. Gabidon 71'
J. Redshaw 60'
K. Parkinson 50'
T. Owolabi 22', 7'
2/14/2026League #59League #59 · Round 31Project Solar UK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hyde United42%
×Draw22%
Hednesford Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hyde United
1.86
Hednesford Town
1.69

Hyde United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hyde United
2.50
Hednesford Town
1.38

allows per match

Hyde United
2.00
Hednesford Town
1.23

finishing

Hyde United+0.00on par
Hednesford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hyde United ↓

Hednesford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hyde United or draw
64%
Hyde United or Hednesford Town
78%
Draw or Hednesford Town
58%

Winning margin

Hyde United wins by 2+
23%
Hednesford Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hyde United 1+ goals
84%
Hyde United 2+ goals
55%
Hyde United 3+ goals
28%
Hednesford Town 1+ goals
82%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
50%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hyde United (draw refunded)
54%
Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hyde United at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Hednesford Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hyde United attack 2.50 + Hednesford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hednesford Town attack 1.38 + Hyde United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hyde United scores more
42%
level
22%
Hednesford Town scores more
36%

Hyde United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hyde United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. Owolabi
22'
T. Owolabi
50'
K. Parkinson
60'
J. Redshaw
71'
D. Gabidon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hyde United vs Hednesford Town

Hyde United beat Hednesford Town 5-0 in League #59 on February 14, 2026.

Goals: T. Owolabi (7', 22'), K. Parkinson (50'), J. Redshaw (60'), D. Gabidon (71').

The match was played at Project Solar UK Stadium in Hyde, Cheshire.