Hwaseong 3–0 Yangju Citizen: Result & Stats

Hwaseong

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yangju Citizen

4/16/2023

K3 League · Round 6Hwaseong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hwaseong52%

×Draw27%

Yangju Citizen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HwaseongExpected goals in this matchYangju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.81

Hwaseong

1.46

Yangju Citizen

0.81

Hwaseong creates 80% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

1.23

creates per match

0.67

0.96

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hwaseong

1.23

Yangju Citizen

0.67

allows per match

Hwaseong

0.96

Yangju Citizen

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwaseong+0.00on par

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaseong ↓

Yangju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hwaseong or draw

79%

Hwaseong or Yangju Citizen

73%

Draw or Yangju Citizen

48%

Winning margin

Hwaseong wins by 2+

26%

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hwaseong 1+ goals

77%

Hwaseong 2+ goals

43%

Hwaseong 3+ goals

18%

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

56%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

19%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hwaseong (draw refunded)

72%

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaseong at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaseong attack 1.23 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Hwaseong defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hwaseong scores more

52%

level

27%

Yangju Citizen scores more

21%

Hwaseong at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff