Hwaseong 0–0 Gyeongju Citizen: Result & Stats

Hwaseong

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gyeongju Citizen

5/16/2020

K3 League · Round 1Hwaseong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hwaseong50%

×Draw27%

Gyeongju Citizen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HwaseongExpected goals in this matchGyeongju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Hwaseong

1.45

Gyeongju Citizen

0.90

Hwaseong creates 61% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 12 away

1.23

creates per match

0.83

0.96

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hwaseong

1.23

Gyeongju Citizen

0.83

allows per match

Hwaseong

0.96

Gyeongju Citizen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwaseong+0.00on par

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaseong ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hwaseong or draw

77%

Hwaseong or Gyeongju Citizen

73%

Draw or Gyeongju Citizen

50%

Winning margin

Hwaseong wins by 2+

25%

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hwaseong 1+ goals

77%

Hwaseong 2+ goals

42%

Hwaseong 3+ goals

18%

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

59%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

23%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hwaseong (draw refunded)

68%

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaseong at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaseong attack 1.23 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Hwaseong defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hwaseong scores more

50%

level

27%

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

23%

Hwaseong at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff