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Hwaseong vs Changwon City — K3 League 2026

Hwaseong
Hwaseong
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Changwon City
Changwon City
6/10/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 14Hwaseong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hwaseong41%
×Draw29%
Changwon City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaseong
1.21
Changwon City
0.99

Hwaseong creates 22% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 107 away

creates per match

Hwaseong
1.23
Changwon City
1.03

allows per match

Hwaseong
0.96
Changwon City
1.19

finishing

Hwaseong+0.00on par
Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaseong ↓

Changwon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hwaseong or draw
70%
Hwaseong or Changwon City
71%
Draw or Changwon City
59%

Winning margin

Hwaseong wins by 2+
18%
Changwon City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hwaseong 1+ goals
70%
Hwaseong 2+ goals
34%
Hwaseong 3+ goals
12%
Changwon City 1+ goals
63%
Changwon City 2+ goals
26%
Changwon City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hwaseong (draw refunded)
58%
Changwon City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaseong at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaseong attack 1.23 + Changwon City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Changwon City attack 1.03 + Hwaseong defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hwaseong scores more
41%
level
29%
Changwon City scores more
30%

Hwaseong at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Hwaseong 1–0 Changwon City

Hwaseong beat Changwon City 1-0 in K3 League on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Hwaseong Stadium in Hwaseong.