Hwange 1–0 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Hwange

FT

1 – 0

Mushowani Stars

11/3/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 29Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hwange48%

×Draw29%

Mushowani Stars23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HwangeExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.80

Hwange

1.28

Mushowani Stars

0.80

Hwange creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.78

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hwange

1.00

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Hwange

0.78

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hwange or draw

77%

Hwange or Mushowani Stars

71%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

52%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+

22%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals

72%

Hwange 2+ goals

37%

Hwange 3+ goals

14%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

55%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

19%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)

67%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hwange scores more

48%

level

29%

Mushowani Stars scores more

23%

Hwange at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff