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Hwange vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
1 – 0
Kariba
Kariba
12/14/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 34Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hwange45%
×Draw32%
Kariba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.10
Kariba
0.70

Hwange creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
77%
Hwange or Kariba
68%
Draw or Kariba
55%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
19%
Kariba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
67%
Hwange 2+ goals
30%
Hwange 3+ goals
10%
Kariba 1+ goals
50%
Kariba 2+ goals
16%
Kariba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
66%
Kariba (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kariba attack 0.61 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hwange scores more
45%
level
32%
Kariba scores more
23%

Hwange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hwange 1 – 0 Kariba

Hwange beat Kariba 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.