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Hwange vs Herentals — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Herentals
Herentals
10/18/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hwange40%
×Draw33%
Herentals27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
0.99
Herentals
0.76

Hwange creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Herentals
0.74

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Herentals
0.98

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Herentals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
73%
Hwange or Herentals
67%
Draw or Herentals
60%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
15%
Herentals wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
63%
Hwange 2+ goals
26%
Hwange 3+ goals
8%
Herentals 1+ goals
53%
Herentals 2+ goals
18%
Herentals 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
59%
Herentals (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Herentals attack 0.74 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hwange scores more
40%
level
33%
Herentals scores more
27%

Hwange at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 1–0 Herentals

Hwange beat Herentals 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.