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Hwange vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
0 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
10/20/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 27Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hwange42%
×Draw32%
Harare City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.09
Harare City
0.79

Hwange creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
74%
Hwange or Harare City
68%
Draw or Harare City
58%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
17%
Harare City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
66%
Hwange 2+ goals
30%
Hwange 3+ goals
10%
Harare City 1+ goals
55%
Harare City 2+ goals
19%
Harare City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
62%
Harare City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Harare City attack 0.79 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hwange scores more
42%
level
32%
Harare City scores more
26%

Hwange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 0–1 Harare City

Harare City beat Hwange 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.