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Hwange vs Chegutu Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
8/11/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hwange43%
×Draw36%
Chegutu Pirates21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
0.94
Chegutu Pirates
0.56

Hwange creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Chegutu Pirates
0.35

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Chegutu Pirates
0.88

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Chegutu Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
79%
Hwange or Chegutu Pirates
64%
Draw or Chegutu Pirates
57%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
16%
Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
61%
Hwange 2+ goals
24%
Hwange 3+ goals
7%
Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
43%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
11%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
67%
Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Chegutu Pirates away — creates 0.35, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Chegutu Pirates defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.35 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hwange scores more
43%
level
36%
Chegutu Pirates scores more
21%

Hwange at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 1–0 Chegutu Pirates

Hwange beat Chegutu Pirates 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.