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Hwange vs Bulawayo Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
5/7/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hwange43%
×Draw31%
Bulawayo Chiefs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.12
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.80

Hwange creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Bulawayo Chiefs
0.81

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Bulawayo Chiefs
1.24

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
74%
Hwange or Bulawayo Chiefs
69%
Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs
57%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
18%
Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
67%
Hwange 2+ goals
31%
Hwange 3+ goals
10%
Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
55%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
19%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
62%
Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hwange scores more
43%
level
31%
Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
26%

Hwange at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 0–3 Bulawayo Chiefs

Bulawayo Chiefs beat Hwange 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.