Hwange 0–0 Black Rhinos: Result & Stats

Hwange

FT

0 – 0

Black Rhinos

10/6/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 25Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hwange41%

×Draw33%

Black Rhinos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HwangeExpected goals in this matchBlack Rhinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.73

Hwange

1.01

Black Rhinos

0.73

Hwange creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.78

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Hwange

1.00

Black Rhinos

0.67

allows per match

Hwange

0.78

Black Rhinos

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Black Rhinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hwange or draw

74%

Hwange or Black Rhinos

67%

Draw or Black Rhinos

59%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+

16%

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals

64%

Hwange 2+ goals

27%

Hwange 3+ goals

8%

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

52%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

17%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)

62%

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hwange scores more

41%

level

33%

Black Rhinos scores more

26%

Hwange at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff