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Hwange vs Arenel Movers — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
5/12/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Colliery Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hwange53%
×Draw28%
Arenel Movers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.35
Arenel Movers
0.69

Hwange creates 96% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Arenel Movers
0.59

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Arenel Movers
1.71

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Arenel Movers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
81%
Hwange or Arenel Movers
72%
Draw or Arenel Movers
47%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
26%
Arenel Movers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
74%
Hwange 2+ goals
39%
Hwange 3+ goals
15%
Arenel Movers 1+ goals
50%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
15%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
73%
Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hwange scores more
53%
level
28%
Arenel Movers scores more
19%

Hwange at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Hwange 1–1 Arenel Movers

Hwange and Arenel Movers drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Colliery Stadium in Hwange.