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Hwacheon KSPO W vs Seoul W — WK-League 2026

Hwacheon KSPO W
Hwacheon KSPO W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Seoul W
Seoul W
9/22/2025WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 26Hwacheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hwacheon KSPO W57%
×Draw23%
Seoul W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwacheon KSPO W
1.87
Seoul W
1.04

Hwacheon KSPO W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hwacheon KSPO W
1.73
Seoul W
1.07

allows per match

Hwacheon KSPO W
1.02
Seoul W
2.01

finishing

Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par
Seoul W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwacheon KSPO W ↓

Seoul W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hwacheon KSPO W or draw
79%
Hwacheon KSPO W or Seoul W
77%
Draw or Seoul W
43%

Winning margin

Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+
33%
Seoul W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals
85%
Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals
56%
Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals
29%
Seoul W 1+ goals
65%
Seoul W 2+ goals
28%
Seoul W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)
73%
Seoul W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwacheon KSPO W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

Seoul W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.73 + Seoul W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.87

Seoul W attack 1.07 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hwacheon KSPO W scores more
57%
level
23%
Seoul W scores more
21%

Hwacheon KSPO W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hwacheon KSPO W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Hwacheon KSPO W 2–0 Seoul W

Hwacheon KSPO W beat Seoul W 2-0 in WK-League on September 22, 2025.

The match was played at Hwacheon Stadium in Hwacheon.