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Hvíti riddarinn vs Árborg — Cup 2019

Hvíti riddarinn
Hvíti riddarinn
FT
4 – 1
Árborg
Árborg
4/23/2021CupCup · 1st RoundFagverksvöllurinn Varmá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hvíti riddarinn71%
×Draw15%
Árborg14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvíti riddarinn
2.91
Árborg
1.24

Hvíti riddarinn creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hvíti riddarinn
2.22
Árborg
0.60

allows per match

Hvíti riddarinn
1.89
Árborg
3.60

finishing

Hvíti riddarinn+0.00on par
Árborg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvíti riddarinn ↓

Árborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hvíti riddarinn or draw
86%
Hvíti riddarinn or Árborg
85%
Draw or Árborg
29%

Winning margin

Hvíti riddarinn wins by 2+
51%
Árborg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hvíti riddarinn 1+ goals
94%
Hvíti riddarinn 2+ goals
78%
Hvíti riddarinn 3+ goals
54%
Árborg 1+ goals
71%
Árborg 2+ goals
35%
Árborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hvíti riddarinn (draw refunded)
84%
Árborg (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvíti riddarinn at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Árborg away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvíti riddarinn attack 2.22 + Árborg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.91

Árborg attack 0.60 + Hvíti riddarinn defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Hvíti riddarinn scores more
71%
level
15%
Árborg scores more
14%

Hvíti riddarinn at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hvíti riddarinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hvíti riddarinn 4–1 Árborg

Hvíti riddarinn beat Árborg 4-1 in Cup on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá in Mosfellsbær.