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Hvidovre vs Viborg — Superliga 2018

Hvidovre
Hvidovre
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Viborg
Viborg
2/25/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Pro Ventilation Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hvidovre25%
×Draw24%
Viborg52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvidovre
1.13
Viborg
1.75

Viborg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hvidovre
0.75
Viborg
1.38

allows per match

Hvidovre
2.13
Viborg
1.51

finishing

Hvidovre+0.00on par
Viborg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvidovre ↓

Viborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hvidovre or draw
48%
Hvidovre or Viborg
76%
Draw or Viborg
75%

Winning margin

Hvidovre wins by 2+
9%
Viborg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hvidovre 1+ goals
68%
Hvidovre 2+ goals
31%
Hvidovre 3+ goals
11%
Viborg 1+ goals
83%
Viborg 2+ goals
52%
Viborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hvidovre (draw refunded)
32%
Viborg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvidovre at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvidovre attack 0.75 + Viborg defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.13

Viborg attack 1.38 + Hvidovre defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hvidovre scores more
25%
level
24%
Viborg scores more
52%

Viborg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvidovre vs Viborg

Hvidovre and Viborg drew 2-2 in Superliga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Pro Ventilation Arena in Hvidovre.