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Hvidovre vs Nykobing FC — 1. Division 2018

Hvidovre
Hvidovre
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
2/18/20231. Division1. Division · Round 18Pro Ventilation Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hvidovre50%
×Draw24%
Nykobing FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvidovre
1.72
Nykobing FC
1.19

Hvidovre creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hvidovre
1.50
Nykobing FC
1.18

allows per match

Hvidovre
1.21
Nykobing FC
1.94

finishing

Hvidovre+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvidovre ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hvidovre or draw
74%
Hvidovre or Nykobing FC
76%
Draw or Nykobing FC
50%

Winning margin

Hvidovre wins by 2+
27%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hvidovre 1+ goals
82%
Hvidovre 2+ goals
51%
Hvidovre 3+ goals
25%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
70%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hvidovre (draw refunded)
65%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvidovre at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvidovre attack 1.50 + Nykobing FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nykobing FC attack 1.18 + Hvidovre defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hvidovre scores more
50%
level
24%
Nykobing FC scores more
26%

Hvidovre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hvidovre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Hvidovre 3–1 Nykobing FC

Hvidovre beat Nykobing FC 3-1 in 1. Division on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Pro Ventilation Arena in Hvidovre.