Hvidovre 4–2 HB Koge: Result & Stats

Hvidovre

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

HB Koge

J. Singh 38'

E. Aby 26', 24'

E. Jensen 16'

O. Khatar 70'

Mudi 10'

7/8/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hvidovre52%

×Draw21%

HB Koge26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HvidovreExpected goals in this matchHB Koge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.42

Hvidovre

2.06

HB Koge

1.42

Hvidovre creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.13

creates per match

1.20

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Hvidovre

2.13

HB Koge

1.20

allows per match

Hvidovre

1.63

HB Koge

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hvidovre+0.00on par

HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvidovre ↓

HB Koge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hvidovre or draw

74%

Hvidovre or HB Koge

79%

Draw or HB Koge

48%

Winning margin

Hvidovre wins by 2+

31%

HB Koge wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hvidovre 1+ goals

87%

Hvidovre 2+ goals

61%

Hvidovre 3+ goals

34%

HB Koge 1+ goals

76%

HB Koge 2+ goals

41%

HB Koge 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hvidovre (draw refunded)

66%

HB Koge (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvidovre at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvidovre attack 2.13 + HB Koge defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

HB Koge attack 1.20 + Hvidovre defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hvidovre scores more

52%

level

21%

HB Koge scores more

26%

Hvidovre at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hvidovre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

16'

24'

26'

38'

70'

Hvidovre

HB

Manager: Martin Retov

Manager: Nicklas Pedersen