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Hvězda Cheb vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
PST
14:30
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
4/12/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 21Stadion Lokomotiva (Cheb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hvězda Cheb46%
×Draw25%
Sokol Čížová29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
1.60
Sokol Čížová
1.23

Hvězda Cheb creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
71%
Hvězda Cheb or Sokol Čížová
75%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
54%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
24%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
80%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
47%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
22%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
35%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
61%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
46%
level
25%
Sokol Čížová scores more
29%

Hvězda Cheb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hvězda Cheb face Sokol Čížová (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Hvězda Cheb hosting Sokol Čížová. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hvězda Cheb host Sokol Čížová at Stadion Lokomotiva (Cheb).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.