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Hvězda Cheb vs Klatovy — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
CANC
14:00
Klatovy
Klatovy
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hvězda Cheb44%
×Draw22%
Klatovy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
1.86
Klatovy
1.59

Hvězda Cheb creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Klatovy
1.44

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Klatovy
2.23

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Klatovy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
67%
Hvězda Cheb or Klatovy
78%
Draw or Klatovy
56%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
24%
Klatovy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
84%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
55%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
28%
Klatovy 1+ goals
80%
Klatovy 2+ goals
47%
Klatovy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
57%
Klatovy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
44%
level
22%
Klatovy scores more
33%

Hvězda Cheb at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hvězda Cheb host Klatovy

March 27, 2021: Hvězda Cheb take on Klatovy in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hvězda Cheb host Klatovy at Stadion Lokomotiva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.