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Hvězda Cheb vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
FT
1 – 0
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
10/23/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hvězda Cheb60%
×Draw20%
Český lev - Union Beroun20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
2.25
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.25

Hvězda Cheb creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
80%
Hvězda Cheb or Český lev - Union Beroun
80%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
40%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
37%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
89%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
65%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
39%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
71%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
36%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
74%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
60%
level
20%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
20%

Hvězda Cheb at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvězda Cheb vs Český lev - Union Beroun

Hvězda Cheb beat Český lev - Union Beroun 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiva in Cheb.