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HV & CV Quick vs Meerssen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Meerssen
Meerssen
9/3/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 3Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HV & CV Quick46%
×Draw23%
Meerssen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HV & CV Quick
1.81
Meerssen
1.46

HV & CV Quick creates 24% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

creates per match

HV & CV Quick
1.85
Meerssen
1.43

allows per match

HV & CV Quick
1.48
Meerssen
1.78

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par
Meerssen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

Meerssen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw
69%
HV & CV Quick or Meerssen
77%
Draw or Meerssen
54%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
25%
Meerssen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
84%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
54%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
27%
Meerssen 1+ goals
77%
Meerssen 2+ goals
43%
Meerssen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
59%
Meerssen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

Meerssen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + Meerssen defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Meerssen attack 1.43 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more
46%
level
23%
Meerssen scores more
31%

HV & CV Quick at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HV & CV Quick vs Meerssen

HV & CV Quick beat Meerssen 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg in Den Haag.