HV & CV Quick 0–2 Hoogland: Result & Stats

HV & CV Quick

FT

0 – 2

Hoogland

11/7/2021

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 11Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

HV & CV Quick54%

×Draw21%

Hoogland25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HV & CV QuickExpected goals in this matchHoogland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.37

HV & CV Quick

2.12

Hoogland

1.37

HV & CV Quick creates 55% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 31 away

1.85

creates per match

1.26

1.48

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

HV & CV Quick

1.85

Hoogland

1.26

allows per match

HV & CV Quick

1.48

Hoogland

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

Hoogland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw

75%

HV & CV Quick or Hoogland

79%

Draw or Hoogland

46%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+

33%

Hoogland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals

88%

HV & CV Quick 2+ goals

62%

HV & CV Quick 3+ goals

35%

Hoogland 1+ goals

75%

Hoogland 2+ goals

40%

Hoogland 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)

69%

Hoogland (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hoogland attack 1.26 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more

54%

level

21%

Hoogland scores more

25%

HV & CV Quick at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff