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HV & CV Quick vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
3/30/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 27Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

HV & CV Quick52%
×Draw22%
GVV Unitas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HV & CV Quick
1.96
GVV Unitas
1.35

HV & CV Quick creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 54 away

creates per match

HV & CV Quick
1.85
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

HV & CV Quick
1.48
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw
74%
HV & CV Quick or GVV Unitas
78%
Draw or GVV Unitas
48%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
30%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
86%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
58%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
31%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
74%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
39%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
66%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more
52%
level
22%
GVV Unitas scores more
26%

HV & CV Quick at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: HV & CV Quick 3–2 GVV Unitas

HV & CV Quick beat GVV Unitas 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg in Den Haag.