HV & CV Quick 3–0 Groene Ster: Result & Stats

HV & CV Quick

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Groene Ster

4/23/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 30Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

HV & CV Quick52%

×Draw23%

Groene Ster25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HV & CV QuickExpected goals in this matchGroene Ster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.21

HV & CV Quick

1.84

Groene Ster

1.21

HV & CV Quick creates 52% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 81 away

1.85

creates per match

0.94

1.48

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

HV & CV Quick

1.85

Groene Ster

0.94

allows per match

HV & CV Quick

1.48

Groene Ster

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

Groene Ster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw

75%

HV & CV Quick or Groene Ster

77%

Draw or Groene Ster

48%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+

29%

Groene Ster wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals

84%

HV & CV Quick 2+ goals

55%

HV & CV Quick 3+ goals

28%

Groene Ster 1+ goals

70%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

34%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)

67%

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more

52%

level

23%

Groene Ster scores more

25%

HV & CV Quick at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff