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HV & CV Quick vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Baronie
Baronie
10/15/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 9Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

HV & CV Quick57%
×Draw20%
Baronie23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HV & CV Quick
2.21
Baronie
1.34

HV & CV Quick creates 65% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 34 away

creates per match

HV & CV Quick
1.85
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

HV & CV Quick
1.48
Baronie
2.56

finishing

HV & CV Quick+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HV & CV Quick ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

HV & CV Quick or draw
77%
HV & CV Quick or Baronie
80%
Draw or Baronie
43%

Winning margin

HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
35%
Baronie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
89%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
65%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
38%
Baronie 1+ goals
74%
Baronie 2+ goals
39%
Baronie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
71%
Baronie (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HV & CV Quick at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 80 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HV & CV Quick attack 1.85 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.21

Baronie attack 1.21 + HV & CV Quick defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

HV & CV Quick scores more
57%
level
20%
Baronie scores more
23%

HV & CV Quick at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: HV & CV Quick 2–3 Baronie

Baronie beat HV & CV Quick 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Hanenburg in Den Haag.