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Hutnik Kraków vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
6/5/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 37Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hutnik Kraków52%
×Draw23%
Sokół Ostróda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.83
Sokół Ostróda
1.19

Hutnik Kraków creates 54% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
75%
Hutnik Kraków or Sokół Ostróda
77%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
48%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
29%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
84%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
54%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
28%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
68%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
52%
level
23%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
25%

Hutnik Kraków at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hutnik Kraków vs Sokół Ostróda

Sokół Ostróda beat Hutnik Kraków 2-1 in II Liga - East on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy in Kraków.