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Hutnik Kraków vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — II Liga - East 2026

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
9/20/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hutnik Kraków41%
×Draw24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.61
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.47

Hutnik Kraków creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.61

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.67

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
65%
Hutnik Kraków or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
76%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
59%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
21%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
80%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
48%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
77%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
43%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
54%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
41%
level
24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
35%

Hutnik Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Hutnik Kraków 2–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Hutnik Kraków and Rekord Bielsko-Biała drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy.