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Hutnik Kraków vs Podhale Nowy Targ — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
3 – 2
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hutnik Kraków34%
×Draw22%
Podhale Nowy Targ44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.65
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.92

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.54
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.75

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
56%
Hutnik Kraków or Podhale Nowy Targ
78%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
66%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
16%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
81%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
49%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
23%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
85%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
57%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
43%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.54 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
34%
level
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
44%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hutnik Kraków 3–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Hutnik Kraków beat Podhale Nowy Targ 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.