Hutnik Kraków 2–0 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Hutnik Kraków

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Garbarnia Kraków

4/24/2021

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hutnik Kraków42%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik KrakówExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.30

Hutnik Kraków

1.51

Garbarnia Kraków

1.30

Hutnik Kraków creates 16% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

1.55

creates per match

1.28

1.32

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.55

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.32

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw

67%

Hutnik Kraków or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

58%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

21%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

78%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

44%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

19%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

73%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

37%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

56%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more

42%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

33%

Hutnik Kraków at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff