Hutnik Kraków 3–1 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Hutnik Kraków

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bytovia Bytów

P. Kieliś 90', 49'

D. Linca 75'

P. Zawistowski 55' (pen)

11/28/2020

II Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hutnik Kraków48%

×Draw24%

Bytovia Bytów28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik KrakówExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Hutnik Kraków

1.71

Bytovia Bytów

1.25

Hutnik Kraków creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

1.55

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.55

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.32

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw

72%

Hutnik Kraków or Bytovia Bytów

76%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

52%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

26%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

82%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

51%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

24%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

71%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

36%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

63%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more

48%

level

24%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

28%

Hutnik Kraków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Drag

45'

J. Bach

49'

P. Kieliś

55'

P. ZawistowskiPenalty

65'

O. Sikorski

72'

M. Wrzesień← O. Sikorski

75'

D. Linca

78'

A. Hafez← K. Sobala

83'

M. Szela← J. Bach

87'

M. Ozimek

89'

P. Giel

90'

M. Zajac

90'

P. Kieliś

Hutnik

Bytovia

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Manager: L. Janiczak

78'▲A. Hafez←▼K. Sobala

Hutnik Kraków substitutes

Hafez

Manager: A. Stawski

72'▲M. Wrzesień←▼O. Sikorski

83'▲M. Szela←▼J. Bach

Bytovia Bytów substitutes

WrzesieńSzela