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Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Śląsk Wrocław U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
FT
1 – 3
Śląsk Wrocław U18
Śląsk Wrocław U18
10/3/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1820%
×Draw19%
Śląsk Wrocław U1861%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.34
Śląsk Wrocław U18
2.44

Śląsk Wrocław U18 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.00
Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.89

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
3.00
Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.68

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Śląsk Wrocław U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw
39%
Hutnik Kraków U18 or Śląsk Wrocław U18
81%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław U18
80%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
8%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
74%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
39%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
15%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 1+ goals
91%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 2+ goals
70%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
25%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Śląsk Wrocław U18 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Śląsk Wrocław U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Śląsk Wrocław U18 attack 1.89 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
20%
level
19%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 scores more
61%

Śląsk Wrocław U18 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Hutnik Kraków U18 1–3 Śląsk Wrocław U18

Śląsk Wrocław U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 3-1 in Central Youth League on October 3, 2020.