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Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Korona Kielce U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
FT
1 – 5
Korona Kielce U18
Korona Kielce U18
5/1/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1828%
×Draw20%
Korona Kielce U1852%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.72
Korona Kielce U18
2.35

Korona Kielce U18 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.00
Korona Kielce U18
1.70

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
3.00
Korona Kielce U18
2.43

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Korona Kielce U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw
48%
Hutnik Kraków U18 or Korona Kielce U18
80%
Draw or Korona Kielce U18
72%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
14%
Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
82%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
51%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
25%
Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals
90%
Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals
68%
Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
35%
Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Korona Kielce U18 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.70 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
28%
level
20%
Korona Kielce U18 scores more
52%

Korona Kielce U18 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korona Kielce U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Korona Kielce U18

Korona Kielce U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 5-1 in Central Youth League on May 1, 2021.