Hutnik Kraków U18 0–4 Jagiellonia U18

Hutnik Kraków U18

FT

0 – 4

Jagiellonia U18

9/20/2020

Central Youth League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1821%

×Draw19%

Jagiellonia U1860%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik Kraków U18Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.39

Hutnik Kraków U18

1.36

Jagiellonia U18

2.39

Jagiellonia U18 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

1.00

creates per match

1.78

3.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18

1.00

Jagiellonia U18

1.78

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18

3.00

Jagiellonia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Jagiellonia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw

40%

Hutnik Kraków U18 or Jagiellonia U18

81%

Draw or Jagiellonia U18

79%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+

9%

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals

74%

Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals

39%

Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals

16%

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

91%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

69%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)

26%

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Jagiellonia U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jagiellonia U18 attack 1.78 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more

21%

level

19%

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

60%

Jagiellonia U18 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff