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Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Górnik Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
FT
1 – 0
Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
6/12/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1819%
×Draw20%
Górnik Zabrze U1861%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.21
Górnik Zabrze U18
2.27

Górnik Zabrze U18 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.00
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.54

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
3.00
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.41

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw
39%
Hutnik Kraków U18 or Górnik Zabrze U18
80%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze U18
81%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
8%
Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
70%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
34%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
12%
Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
90%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
66%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
24%
Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Górnik Zabrze U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.54 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
19%
level
20%
Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
61%

Górnik Zabrze U18 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Hutnik Kraków U18 1–0 Górnik Zabrze U18

Hutnik Kraków U18 beat Górnik Zabrze U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on June 12, 2021.