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Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Escola Varsovia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
FT
2 – 8
Escola Varsovia U18
Escola Varsovia U18
11/28/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1822%
×Draw20%
Escola Varsovia U1858%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.36
Escola Varsovia U18
2.29

Escola Varsovia U18 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.00
Escola Varsovia U18
1.59

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
3.00
Escola Varsovia U18
1.73

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par
Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Escola Varsovia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw
42%
Hutnik Kraków U18 or Escola Varsovia U18
80%
Draw or Escola Varsovia U18
78%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
9%
Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
74%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
39%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
16%
Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals
90%
Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals
66%
Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
28%
Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Escola Varsovia U18 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.59 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
22%
level
20%
Escola Varsovia U18 scores more
58%

Escola Varsovia U18 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Escola Varsovia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Hutnik Kraków U18 2–8 Escola Varsovia U18

Escola Varsovia U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 8-2 in Central Youth League on November 28, 2020.