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Hutnik Kraków U18 vs Arka Gdynia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
FT
3 – 2
Arka Gdynia U18
Arka Gdynia U18
6/2/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hutnik Kraków U1823%
×Draw20%
Arka Gdynia U1857%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.42
Arka Gdynia U18
2.31

Arka Gdynia U18 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
1.00
Arka Gdynia U18
1.61

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków U18
3.00
Arka Gdynia U18
1.84

finishing

Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków U18 ↓

Arka Gdynia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków U18 or draw
43%
Hutnik Kraków U18 or Arka Gdynia U18
80%
Draw or Arka Gdynia U18
77%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
10%
Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
76%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
41%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
17%
Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals
90%
Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals
67%
Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
29%
Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków U18 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

Arka Gdynia U18 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 1.00 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 1.61 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
23%
level
20%
Arka Gdynia U18 scores more
57%

Arka Gdynia U18 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Hutnik Kraków U18 3–2 Arka Gdynia U18

Hutnik Kraków U18 beat Arka Gdynia U18 3-2 in Central Youth League on June 2, 2021.