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Hussein Dey vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
9/22/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hussein Dey49%
×Draw27%
USM Bel Abbes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hussein Dey
1.40
USM Bel Abbes
0.88

Hussein Dey creates 59% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hussein Dey
1.05
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

Hussein Dey
1.14
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

Hussein Dey+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hussein Dey ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hussein Dey or draw
76%
Hussein Dey or USM Bel Abbes
73%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
51%

Winning margin

Hussein Dey wins by 2+
24%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hussein Dey 1+ goals
75%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
41%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
17%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
59%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
22%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
67%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hussein Dey at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hussein Dey attack 1.05 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + Hussein Dey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hussein Dey scores more
49%
level
27%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
24%

Hussein Dey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hussein Dey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Hussein Dey 0–0 USM Bel Abbes

Hussein Dey and USM Bel Abbes drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).