Hussein Dey 0–0 Amal BOU Saada: Result & Stats

Hussein Dey

0 – 0

Amal BOU Saada

10/4/2013

League #187 · Round 7Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hussein Dey57%

×Draw30%

Amal BOU Saada13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hussein DeyExpected goals in this matchAmal BOU Saada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.45

Hussein Dey

1.25

Amal BOU Saada

0.45

Hussein Dey creates 178% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

0.75

creates per match

0.89

0.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Hussein Dey

0.75

Amal BOU Saada

0.89

allows per match

Hussein Dey

0.00

Amal BOU Saada

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hussein Dey ↓

Amal BOU Saada →

0–018%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–014%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hussein Dey or draw

87%

Hussein Dey or Amal BOU Saada

70%

Draw or Amal BOU Saada

43%

Winning margin

Hussein Dey wins by 2+

27%

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

Team goals

Hussein Dey 1+ goals

71%

Hussein Dey 2+ goals

36%

Hussein Dey 3+ goals

13%

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

36%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Hussein Dey (draw refunded)

81%

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hussein Dey at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hussein Dey attack 0.75 + Amal BOU Saada defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.89 + Hussein Dey defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hussein Dey scores more

57%

level

30%

Amal BOU Saada scores more

13%

Hussein Dey at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hussein Dey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff