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Husqvarna vs Trelleborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Husqvarna
Husqvarna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
8/23/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundVapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Husqvarna19%
×Draw20%
Trelleborg62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna
1.14
Trelleborg
2.22

Trelleborg creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Husqvarna
0.83
Trelleborg
1.61

allows per match

Husqvarna
2.83
Trelleborg
1.44

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw
38%
Husqvarna or Trelleborg
80%
Draw or Trelleborg
81%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+
7%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals
68%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
32%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
11%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
89%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
65%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)
23%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 0.83 + Trelleborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Trelleborg attack 1.61 + Husqvarna defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Husqvarna scores more
19%
level
20%
Trelleborg scores more
62%

Trelleborg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Husqvarna vs Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat Husqvarna 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.