Husqvarna 1–0 Råslätts: Result & Stats

Husqvarna

FT

1 – 0

Råslätts

9/7/2019

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 21Vapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Husqvarna55%

×Draw23%

Råslätts22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HusqvarnaExpected goals in this matchRåslätts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.07

Husqvarna

1.83

Råslätts

1.07

Husqvarna creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

0.77

1.37

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Husqvarna

1.58

Råslätts

0.77

allows per match

Husqvarna

1.37

Råslätts

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par

Råslätts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Råslätts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw

78%

Husqvarna or Råslätts

77%

Draw or Råslätts

45%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+

31%

Råslätts wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals

84%

Husqvarna 2+ goals

54%

Husqvarna 3+ goals

28%

Råslätts 1+ goals

66%

Råslätts 2+ goals

29%

Råslätts 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)

71%

Råslätts (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Råslätts away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 1.58 + Råslätts defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Råslätts attack 0.77 + Husqvarna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Husqvarna scores more

55%

level

23%

Råslätts scores more

22%

Husqvarna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Husqvarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff