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Husqvarna vs Osters IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Husqvarna
Husqvarna
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Osters IF
Osters IF
8/18/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundVapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Husqvarna20%
×Draw20%
Osters IF60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna
1.20
Osters IF
2.20

Osters IF creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Husqvarna
0.83
Osters IF
1.57

allows per match

Husqvarna
2.83
Osters IF
1.57

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw
40%
Husqvarna or Osters IF
80%
Draw or Osters IF
80%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+
8%
Osters IF wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals
70%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
34%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
12%
Osters IF 1+ goals
89%
Osters IF 2+ goals
64%
Osters IF 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)
25%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 0.83 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Osters IF attack 1.57 + Husqvarna defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Husqvarna scores more
20%
level
20%
Osters IF scores more
60%

Osters IF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Husqvarna 0–3 Osters IF

Osters IF beat Husqvarna 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.