Husqvarna 0–4 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Husqvarna

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Mjallby AIF

8/21/2019

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundVapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Husqvarna6%

×Draw13%

Mjallby AIF81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HusqvarnaExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.81

Husqvarna

0.67

Mjallby AIF

2.81

Mjallby AIF creates 319% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.83

creates per match

2.79

2.83

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Husqvarna

0.83

Mjallby AIF

2.79

allows per match

Husqvarna

2.83

Mjallby AIF

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–312%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw

19%

Husqvarna or Mjallby AIF

87%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

94%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+

2%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals

49%

Husqvarna 2+ goals

15%

Husqvarna 3+ goals

3%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

94%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

76%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)

7%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 0.83 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Husqvarna defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Husqvarna scores more

6%

level

13%

Mjallby AIF scores more

81%

Mjallby AIF at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff