Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Husqvarna vs IFK Skövde — Ettan - Södra 2019

Husqvarna
Husqvarna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
10/10/2025Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 26Vapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Husqvarna66%
×Draw19%
IFK Skövde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna
2.20
IFK Skövde
0.94

Husqvarna creates 134% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Husqvarna
1.80
IFK Skövde
0.80

allows per match

Husqvarna
1.07
IFK Skövde
2.60

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par
IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

IFK Skövde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw
85%
Husqvarna or IFK Skövde
81%
Draw or IFK Skövde
34%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+
42%
IFK Skövde wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals
89%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
64%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
37%
IFK Skövde 1+ goals
61%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
24%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)
81%
IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

IFK Skövde away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 1.80 + IFK Skövde defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

IFK Skövde attack 0.80 + Husqvarna defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Husqvarna scores more
66%
level
19%
IFK Skövde scores more
15%

Husqvarna at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Husqvarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Husqvarna vs IFK Skövde

IFK Skövde beat Husqvarna 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on October 10, 2025.

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.