Hürth 4–1 Wesseling-Urfeld: Result & Stats

Hürth

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wesseling-Urfeld

3/27/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hürth68%

×Draw17%

Wesseling-Urfeld15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HürthExpected goals in this matchWesseling-Urfeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.23

Hürth

2.71

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.23

Hürth creates 120% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

1.46

allows per match

4.05

creates per match

Hürth

1.37

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.00

allows per match

Hürth

1.46

Wesseling-Urfeld

4.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hürth or draw

85%

Hürth or Wesseling-Urfeld

83%

Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld

32%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+

47%

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals

93%

Hürth 2+ goals

75%

Hürth 3+ goals

50%

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals

71%

Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals

35%

Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)

82%

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 2.71

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hürth scores more

68%

level

17%

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more

15%

Hürth at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff