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Hürth vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
3/13/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hürth51%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.98
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.41

Hürth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
73%
Hürth or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
78%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
49%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
29%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
86%
Hürth 2+ goals
59%
Hürth 3+ goals
31%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
41%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
65%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hürth scores more
51%
level
22%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
27%

Hürth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hürth vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Hürth beat Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.