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Hürth vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
2 – 0
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
9/6/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 1Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hürth50%
×Draw22%
Friesdorf28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.94
Friesdorf
1.41

Hürth creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
72%
Hürth or Friesdorf
78%
Draw or Friesdorf
50%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
28%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
86%
Hürth 2+ goals
58%
Hürth 3+ goals
30%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
76%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
41%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
64%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hürth scores more
50%
level
22%
Friesdorf scores more
28%

Hürth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hürth 2–0 Friesdorf

Hürth beat Friesdorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.